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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."